Curse

pyrohex · Jun 30, 2006, 01:18 PM // 13:18

How many tickets do you people start with?

Carinae · Jun 30, 2006, 01:20 PM // 13:20

25k tickets won, 2400 games lost.

Well on my way.

striderkaaru · Jun 30, 2006, 01:20 PM // 13:20

hahaha.

this is so funny. now people are PAYING 50k+ to go afk in game.

Asrial · Jun 30, 2006, 01:23 PM // 13:23

HERE'S THE END ALL BE ALL RULING, FROM READING POSTS AND PERSONAL EXPERIENCE: if you want both titles, spend 50 plat on tickets, and go afk on any square (I recommend corner, but maybe you have a fear of it..) of 9 ring for '3' 7 hour nights of sleep.

Me? Sleep + Work = Golden

Asrial · Jun 30, 2006, 01:24 PM // 13:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by striderkaaru

now people are PAYING 50k+ to go afk in game.

The better question is...

Why are people paying 50k to go AFK in THIS game?

Gen Saver · Jun 30, 2006, 01:24 PM // 13:24

been standing in the middle ring of the 9-ring one and got about 17.000 tickets won and 850 games lost

Indian · Jun 30, 2006, 01:47 PM // 13:47

ya i went to bed like 6 hours ago.
i was at 2k tickets and 100 lost
now at 15k tickets and on 2k lost, ya like every1 says stand in corner if you going AFK, and make sure u have more than 1k tickets in your hands

Jetdoc · Jun 30, 2006, 01:58 PM // 13:58

To repeat, has anyone gotten either title yet, and if so (1) are the titles listed max and (2) do they count toward the Kind of a Big Deal title?

I also wonder if these titles will stay after the Dragon Festival is over....

Juicey Shake · Jun 30, 2006, 02:04 PM // 14:04

at 30k hope to let you know if max or not soon :P

Sagaris · Jun 30, 2006, 02:35 PM // 14:35

Ok, all these theories are making me feel dizzy.

Just to get this completely straight.

How many tickets are you guys starting with?
To get the Lucky title, on the 3x3 game you can stand on any square?

Rebirther · Jun 30, 2006, 02:38 PM // 14:38

corner circle works out as as the best cause of the win/lose ratio, more losses less wins but when you do win its alot of tickets which should equal the amount of time you stayed on any other circle.

when i did it i started of with 5000 tickets. to go afk just to be on the safe side.

besides according to the calculations, these games are lose lose situation, only gain is the title.
sorta like the drunkard title. for the rich... lol

Fate · Jun 30, 2006, 02:41 PM // 14:41

On the 3x3 board:
Corner: 55 + 15 + 15 = 85 (6 in 9 chance to lose)
Edge: 15 + 15+ 15 + 35 = 85 (5 in 9 chance to lose)
Middle: 25 + 15+ 15 + 15 +15 = 85 (4 in 9 chance to lose)

Corner:
85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round
6 / 9 = losses per round = .66666 <----- fastest of 3x3 game to get losses
(10 * 9) - 85 = 5 tickets lost per 9 games
5 / 9 = .55555 tickets lost per round

Rounds required to earn charmed = 5294.1176470588235294117647058824 ((50k / tickets won per round = rounds))
Rounds required for Unlucky title = 7500 ((5k / losses per round))

7500 rounds * tickets lost per round = 4166.6666666666666666666666666667 tickets lost while aquiring titles
Tickets lost * 15gp = total cost (62500 gp)

Edge:
85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round
5 / 9 = losses per round = .555555

Middle:
85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round
4 / 9 = losses per round = .444444

On the 4x4 board:
All points: 12 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + (0*9) = 30 won tickets (9/16 chance to lose)
30 / 16 = tickets won per round = 1.875
9 / 16 = losses per round = .5625
(2 * 16) - 30 = 2 tickets lost per 16 games
2 / 16 = 0.125 tickets lost per round

Rounds required to earn charmed = 26,666.666666666666666666666666667 ((50k / tickets won per round = rounds))
Rounds required for Unlucky title = 8888.8888888888888888888888888889 ((5k / losses per round))

26,666.666666666666666666666666667 rounds * tickets lost per round = 3333.3333333333333333333333333325 tickets lost in aquiring titles
Tickets lost * 15gp = total cost (49999.999999999999999999999999988 gp)

If rounds average ((20 rounds * 8 sec) + 33 sec delay) / 20 rounds = 9.65sec
Time to get both titles on 3x3: 9.65 * 7500 / 60 / 60 = 20.104167 hours
Time to get both titles on 4x4: 9.65 * 26,666.666666666666666666666666667 / 60 / 60 = 71.481 hours

Analysis:
The 4x4 takes much longer.
The 4x4 costs about 13k less gold.

Someone mind double checking this? I question my math since I'm getting the lucky title so much slower then the unlucky one Thank skyfox for the fix!

Dragou Du Porzan · Jun 30, 2006, 03:00 PM // 15:00

I just want to throw out a theory right now while we're all sitting AFK in an effort to get these titles: I'm thinking there's at least a fair chance that we won't be able to get both the Lucky and Unlucky titles. I'm wondering if, when we reach the (first?) threshold for achieving one of these titles, our progress on the other title will vanish. After all, how much sense would it make to be both "Lucky" and "Unlucky"?

Before anyone takes this too seriously, bear in mind that this is only a theory! We've got some people that are probably within 6 hours of achieving one of the titles, so hopefully we'll have some definitive answers soon.

And BTW, a big, "Thank you!" to all those who have been posting the statistical probabilites for these games!

Witchblade · Jun 30, 2006, 03:07 PM // 15:07

my guess is that there is more than one tier just to make sure u ll be around for other events

we ll probably know in a few hours

Red · Jun 30, 2006, 03:08 PM // 15:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dragou Du Porzan

I just want to throw out a theory right now while we're all sitting AFK in an effort to get these titles: I'm thinking there's at least a fair chance that we won't be able to get both the Lucky and Unlucky titles. I'm wondering if, when we reach the (first?) threshold for achieving one of these titles, our progress on the other title will vanish. After all, how much sense would it make to be both "Lucky" and "Unlucky"?

Before anyone takes this too seriously, bear in mind that this is only a theory! We've got some people that are probably within 6 hours of achieving one of the titles, so hopefully we'll have some definitive answers soon.

And BTW, a big, "Thank you!" to all those who have been posting the statistical probabilites for these games!

You're welcome. ^_^

And, I want to shoot down your theory. As of this point, I am 70% on the way to getting Lucky, but only 43% on the way to getting the Unlucky title, and I'm standing in the most unlucky spot in 9-ring. I think you'd have to be really lucky to get the Hapless title first. -_- I don't think they'd give us a title so improbable to get. =P

Solar Light · Jun 30, 2006, 03:11 PM // 15:11

almost got 38k on the lucky title from sleeping afk in the middle, i moved to the corner now since my unlucky was laggin behind, 2k for it currently

i hope i get to be one of the first, since i got on the rings right when the news broke.

also keep in mind all this math states is averages and probabilitys, a persons indivudual rate will vairy somewhat.

skyfox · Jun 30, 2006, 03:30 PM // 15:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fate

Mercury Angel: Your note about earning both titles only talking about geting 42k tickets earned, which isn't enough for any title.
skyfox: Perfect math.... BUT! You failed you account for the fact that the hapless title actually takes longer then the lucky title.

On the 3x3 board:
Corner: 55 + 15 + 15 = 85 (6 in 9 chance to lose)
Edge: 15 + 15+ 15 + 35 = 85 (5 in 9 chance to lose)
Middle: 25 + 15+ 15 + 15 +15 = 85 (4 in 9 chance to lose)

Corner:
85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round
6 / 9 = losses per round = .66666 <----- fastest of 3x3 game to get losses
(10 * 9) - 85 = 5 tickets lost per 9 games
5 / 9 = .55555 tickets lost per round

Rounds required to earn charmed = 5294.1176470588235294117647058824 ((50k / tickets won per round = rounds))
Rounds required for Unlucky title = 7500 ((5k / losses per round))

7500 rounds * tickets lost per round = 4166.6666666666666666666666666667 tickets lost while aquiring titles
Tickets lost * 15gp = total cost (62500 gp)

Edge:
85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round
5 / 9 = losses per round = .555555

Middle:
85 / 9 = 9.4444 tickets won per round
4 / 9 = losses per round = .444444

On the 4x4 board:
All points: 12 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 + (0*9) = 30 won tickets (9/16 chance to lose)
30 / 16 = tickets won per round = 1.875
9 / 16 = losses per round = .5625
(2 * 16) - 30 = 2 tickets lost per 16 games
2 / 16 = 0.125 tickets lost per round

Rounds required to earn charmed = 26,666.666666666666666666666666667 ((50k / tickets won per round = rounds))
Rounds required for Unlucky title = 8888.8888888888888888888888888889 ((5k / losses per round))

8888.8888888888888888888888888889 rounds * tickets lost per round = 1111.1111111111111111111111111111 tickets lost in aquiring titles
Tickets lost * 15gp = total cost (16666.666666666666666666666666665 gp)

Analysis:
The 4x4 takes slightly more then 2.13x time to get both titles. 3x3 is faster.
The 4x4 costs about (1/3.75)th of the gold. 4x4 is cheaper

Someone mind double checking this? I question my math since I'm getting the lucky title so much slower then the unlucky one

i checked it - we have the same results, except you are wrong with the costs on the 4x4 board for getting both titles:

if you only play 8889 games on the 4x4 board you cant get the charmed title - therefore you need 26667 games which gives: 26667 * 0.125 ~ 3334 tickets and thats 50k gold.

but as mentioned: same results and i think we both kept in mind that these titles require different amounts of games played.

one thing i was not thinking about was split strategys like playing 4000 games on the 3x3 and the rest on the 4x4 board. but if you keep in mind that you need more than 3.5 times longer on the 4x4 board and it is only 1.25 times cheaper i dont want to think about the details of a mixed gameplay.

nice calculation and greetings,
skyfox

Ecksor · Jun 30, 2006, 03:34 PM // 15:34

so tell me how do you not err7 when you go afk???

Mercury Angel · Jun 30, 2006, 03:38 PM // 15:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fate

Mercury Angel: Your note about earning both titles only talking about geting 42k tickets earned, which isn't enough for any title.

Most efficient method of getting both titles:
4605 rounds of Nine Circles - 3039 losses (corner), 43471 tickets won
3486 rounds of Sixteen Circles - 1961 losses, 6536 tickets won

4605 rounds of Nine Circles, 9.44 tickets average per round, 66% of the rounds are losses: Comes out to be 43,471 tickets and 3039 losses

and then, 3486 rounds of Sixteen Circles, 1.875 tickets average per round, 56.25% of the rounds are losses: Comes out to be 6536 tickets, and 1961 losses

43,471+6536 = 50007 tickets combined
3039+1961 = 5000 losses combined

Where exactly did I make the error? >_>
Don't tell me it's something stupidly obvious T_T

Fate · Jun 30, 2006, 03:40 PM // 15:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by skyfox

i checked it - we have the same results, except you are wrong with the costs on the 4x4 board for getting both titles:

if you only play 8889 games on the 4x4 board you cant get the charmed title - therefore you need 26667 games which gives: 26667 * 0.125 ~ 3334 tickets and thats 50k gold.

but as mentioned: same results and i think we both kept in mind that these titles require different amounts of games played.

one thing i was not thinking about was split strategys like playing 4000 games on the 3x3 and the rest on the 4x4 board. but if you keep in mind that you need more than 3.5 times longer on the 4x4 board and it is only 1.25 times cheaper i dont want to think about the details of a mixed gameplay.

nice calculation and greetings,
skyfox

Ah, for some reason I was thinking 8888 > 26667 which is totally not true! Donno why I was failing it so hard. I'll go edit my post to fix that.